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Acid Test........... Bitcoin Must Break $7,800 for Bull Reversal

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Bitcoin (BTC) continues to mount a recovery despite the recent bearish "death cross" chart event.

As of writing, bitcoin is changing hands at $7,400 on Bitfinex and the average price on leading exchanges, as represented by CoinDesk's Bitcoin Price Index, is seen at $7,380.

The cryptocurrency's 15-percent rally from the 54-day low of $6,425 set on April 1 is encouraging and pretty much in line with the historical relative strength index (RSI) pattern.

That said, the bulls' job is only half done, and bitcoin is still stuck in a falling channel. So, a clear break above $7,800 is now needed to confirm a bullish trend reversal and avert another sell-off.

A daily close (as per UTC) above the falling channel resistance would signal a short-term bullish trend reversal - i.e. the sell-off from the March 5 high of $11,700 has ended and would allow a test of supply around the bigger descending trendline sloping downwards from the Dec. 17 high and Jan. 6 high.

Note, the falling channel resistance is lined up at $7,900 and is seen sloping downwards to $7,800 by tomorrow. A move above that level would lift the RSI above the descending trendline, thus bringing in more technical buyers into the market.

As a result, the falling channel resistance presents a sort of acid test for the bitcoin market.

In the larger scheme of things, a bullish reversal is seen only above $11,700 as shown by the long duration chart below.

BTC has defended the 50-week moving average (MA), yet the outlook remains bearish as suggested by the descending 5-week MA and 10-week MA. Furthermore, the RSI is bearish. Only a move above $11,700 (bearish outside-week candle high) would revive the bullish outlook and potentially yield rally to fresh record highs.



FIRE...

Acid Test: Bitcoin Must Break $7,800 for Bull Reversal

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